Heavy Favorites

No Country for Old Men -- The ultimate critical favorite, but is it too gritty for the Academy?
Atonement -- Picture-perfect literary adapation, but hampered by some less-than-stellar reviews.
Sweeney Todd -- Attend the tale! See the blood! Sing the songs! Win an Oscar? Mmmmaybe...
There Will Be Blood -- Ultimate art-house pick, though Anderson's (and Day-Lewis') brilliance cannot be denied.
Charlie Wilson's War -- Perfect A-list recipe for Oscar buzz, though we hear it's good but not great.
The Kite Runner -- Another book adaptation, this one designed for topicality and heartstrings-tugging.

 

Long Shots

Michael Clayton -- Smartest mainstream movie of the year. Did you see it? Neither did we.
Into the Wild -- Sensitive, nuanced, amazingly acted... see you at the Independent Spirit Awards!
American Gangster -- The Academy loves Ridley Scott, but is this too slick and popular?
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford -- Sorry, this is the art-house king of the year, but Brad Pitt is no Daniel Day-Lewis.
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead -- Sidney Lumet returns at the top of his game with a stellar cast.

Our Dream Nomination: Juno -- This year's Little Miss Sunshine, but even better.

 

Heavy Favorites

George Clooney (Michael Clayton) -- Easy to add up: Star power + Intelligent (if little-seen) film = Sure-fire nomination.
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) -- Yet another brilliant, harrowing performance. Too bloody for Oscar, though?
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) -- Talk about bloody, though bloody brilliant is more like it. Is it finally Depp's year?
James McAvoy (Atonement) -- Handsome Brit finally emerges from the shadows as a leading man.
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War) -- Everyone's favorite, back in a smart, clever comedy, with no sign of Da Vinci or his code in sight.
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) -- This year's Ryan Gosling: young, supremely talented, capable of carrying a film.
Denzel Washington (American Gangster) -- When he's good, he's good -- but when Denzel plays bad, he's even better.

 

Long Shots

Casey Affleck (Gone Baby Gone) -- The younger Affleck finally comes into his own, but he has a better chance in the Supporting Actor category
Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men) -- He's the star of the most acclaimed film of the year, but is it enough to snag him a nomination?
John Cusack (Grace Is Gone) -- It's been over 15 years since we first met Lloyd Dobler, and Cusack is still hitting it out of the park
Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening) -- Very acclaimed performance, but wait 'til next year's Frost/Nixon...
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) -- He may be the best and brightest of his generation, but was this indie comedy a little too offbeat?
Russell Crowe (3:10 to Yuma) -- Forget Clooney, this was the movie-star performance of the year. Too bad it's already been forgotten.

 

Our Dream Nomination: Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) -- With this tough, brutal performance, Mortensen fully emerges from the Rings shadow; we want him to make David Cronenberg films forever.

Heavy Favorites

Julie Christie (Away From Her) -- A devastating performance by a still-classy, still-amazing star. Does she have it locked up?
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) -- Her Edith Piaf made critics sing, and it may be a perfect performance for Academy members to discover on DVD.
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) -- Ever-present in tabloids, Jolie proved she still has acting chops with a phenomenal performance.
Keira Knightley (Atonement) -- The Pride & Prejudice star teams up with the director who guided her to her first nomination; we see a second one in her future.
Ellen Page (Juno) -- All hail the indie queen, this year's Abigail Breslin and Keisha Castle-Hughes all wrapped up into one.

 

Long Shots

Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd) -- She may not have the lungs for Sondheim, but she has attitude and talent to burn.
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) -- Slap a crown and a gown on this Oscar winner, and you're already halfway there.
Jodie Foster (The Brave One) -- If Foster got a nomination for Nell, she can surely nab one for this much better performance!
Amy Adams (Enchanted) -- Sweet and dreamy, she's one Disney princess you could stand to be around for sustained periods of time.
Katherine Heigl (Knocked Up) -- She was the best thing in an all-boys' comedy, and pretty funny to boot.

 

Our Dream Nomination: Laura Linney (The Savages) -- To us, she can do no wrong. Enough said.

 

Heavy Favorites

Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) -- Though he was a sturdy lead in Gone Baby Gone, he walked off with this movie under his belt.
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) -- The most fearsome assassin you could ever imagine... just that haircut alone is enough to give us chills.
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) -- Career recognition a la Alan Arkin -- and a great performance -- could snag the esteemed actor the Oscar.
Russell Crowe (American Gangster) -- Whoever moved him into the supporting category away from Denzel knew exactly what they were doing.
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) -- More than held his own opposite Clooney -- and onscreen nervous breakdowns never hurt either.

 

Long Shots

Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) -- All the hoopla over leading man Day-Lewis may obscure Dano's extremely powerful turn.
Ben Foster (3:10 to Yuma) -- Crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy! Too crazy?
Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men) -- The anchor of the Coen brothers' great thriller, and always up for consideration.
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) -- Of the three films Hoffman's in (and great in), this one has the highest profile.
Alan Rickman (Sweeney Todd) -- Can he ride the Burton bandwagon to a nomination?

 

Our Dream Nomination: Mark Ruffalo (Zodiac) -- If this movie had come out in November instead of March, everyone would be talking about this superlative, too-often overlooked actor.

 

Heavy Favorites

Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) -- Oscar, baby, Oscar. How many critics' awards has she won?!
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) -- Her Bob Dylan was a trip, man... and this movie's only hope for Oscar recognition.
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) -- Okay, the My Cousin Vinny jokes officially stop right here.
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) -- Ice, ice, baby! The only other actor who inspires more fear is Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter.
Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War) -- She could get a nomination for just showing up; fortunately, she acts too.

 

Long Shots

Vanessa Redgrave/Romola Garai/Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) -- Who to pick as the narrator seeking redemption? Your guess is as good as ours.
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding) -- One of the few likeable people in a hard-to-like movie.
Michelle Pfeiffer (Hairspray) -- A fun turn, and a welcome return for someone who makes turning 50 look great.
Leslie Mann (Knocked Up) -- Like co-star Katherine Heigl, she overcame a one-dimensional role with a three-dimensional performance.
Meryl Streep (Rendition/Lions for Lambs) -- She's Streep. That's all.

Our Dream Nomination: Jennifer Garner (Juno) -- Bye-bye, action heroine and rom-com starlet; the former "Alias" star provides surprising heart in the sardonic indie comedy.

 

Heavy Favorites

Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd) -- Can the man behind Beetlejuice and Batman fall into the Academy's good graces?
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) -- Foregone conclusion. This might just be their year, finally.
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) -- After two screenplay nominations, PT will finally get a directing nod.
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) -- One of those nominated-for-directing-but-not-for-picture movies (oh, it's brilliant, too).
Joe Wright (Atonement) -- This year's recipient of the Academy's "We Heart British Directors Too" Cultural Exchange Program.
Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) -- Everyone loves when a veteran director roars back into view, especially when the movie's great.

 

Long Shots

Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson's War) -- Can you believe his last Oscar nomination was for... Working Girl?!
Sean Penn (Into the Wild) -- Behind the actor and polarizing political figure is an actual real director.
Ben Affleck (Gone Baby Gone) -- The former tabloid punching bag finds his one true place: behind the camera. Who knew?
Jason Reitman (Juno) -- Making the phrase "independent film" a good thing again.
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) -- Someone who takes making movies for adults to heart.
Ridley Scott (American Gangster) -- Always a bridesmaid...