BY DAVID FRENCH 

One of the problems with understanding the Ukraine impeachment proceedings is that while there is a one-sentence summary of what Trump did – he hijacked American foreign policy to attempt to extort an investigation of a political rival from a desperate and dependent American ally – there is no good and simple explanation of the sheer gravity of the harm that Trump stood to inflict on American national interests.

And it’s in understanding the gravity of the harm that Americans can begin to answer the question, “Why now?” Even if Trump did do something wrong, why impeach him during an election year? Why seek to remove him the very year when voters can render their own judgment on his candidacy?

The answer is short – because Trump’s corruption could have had profound strategic consequences – but the explanation is a bit longer, and it requires the assistance of a very helpful and timely report on Russian military capabilities from the RAND Corporation.

The report is long (99 pages) and detailed, but the relevant summary is relatively clear. Many Americans are aware of Russia’s capabilities in cyberwarfare and disinformation operations, but they’re largely unaware of advances in its conventional military capabilities. Russia has accomplished two things of real importance in the past decade (or so) of military modernization. First, it has substantially modernized and professionalized its force. And second, it has optimized it for operations that are virtually custom-designed to place NATO, our most vital international alliance, in perhaps an impossible military, strategic, and political bind.

Russia’s military progress has been on public display in two vital world regions – the Middle East (where it has proved remarkably effective at defeating the Syrian regime’s internal enemies) and, crucially, in Ukraine. In the Rand report’s words, when Russian forces invaded Crimea in 2014, “few were surprised by the annexation,” but “many were surprised by the performance of the Russian armed forces. Russian soldiers in Crimea were competent, capable, and professional, three terms that had not been applied to the Russian military in quite some time.”

Indeed, in the much bloodier fighting in southeastern Ukraine, Russian forces have “generated decisive advantages over Ukrainian ground forces,” and they’ve also “made Western militaries pay increasing attention to the threat that the Russian military would pose in any future conflict in Eastern Europe.” The RAND report assesses that “Russian Ground Forces have local dominance along its European and Central Asian borders.”